Inside the blue room: Professor Chris Elliott talks food fraud in 2026

Welcome to the Blue Room, Foods Connected's new insight-led interview series. We'll be talking to our in-house industry experts and other guests about the issues that matter to businesses in the food sector.  In this edition we chat with Professor Chris Elliott. The world authority on food fraud discusses the areas being targeted by bad actors, the role AI can play in fraud detection and the biggest food safety challenges the industry is facing in 2026. 

In our chat we cover:

• What the industry needs to do to stay proactive against bad actors
• The importance of a food safety risk list to keep your supply chain food safe and compliant
• The pros and cons of AI in the food safety space
• How regulations like EUDR are changing the industry's approach to food fraud and food safety in general
  
• And what businesses can do to ensure their supply chains remain resilient as the year progresses

Welcome, Professor Elliott — you're world-recognised expert in the field of food fraud. How seriously do you think the industry is taking the problem right now?

Chris Elliott: It's great to be here chatting about my favourite topic — fraud. I'm not a fraudster; I investigate to catch the bad people. One of the most important things to understand is that food fraud has been going on for a very long time. We can track it back to the ancient Egyptians, for instance. What has changed is the scale. The whole food system has been globalised and is very complex, and because of that complexity, it's giving people a lot of opportunities to cheat and lie.

To put that into perspective: food fraud has been estimated to be worth somewhere between 50 and 100 billion USD per year. That's big business, and the likelihood is it's going to increase with all of the different pressures on the global food supply system. Food fraud isn't going away, and the worry for businesses is they will become more and more impacted without having the right measures in place to mitigate against those risks.

You've just written an article for New Food Magazine all about food fraud in 2026 and beyond. You talk about how food fraud is evolving and the new opportunities arising for bad actors, making it very difficult for the industry to be proactive. What can they do about it?

Chris Elliott: It's always good to take out your crystal ball and make some predictions. I describe it as my digital crystal ball, because I try to pull in as many data sources as possible — talking to lots of people, finding out where the current weaknesses and pressures are, and where more pressures might be coming. There are certainly a lot of drivers for fraud right now. Climate change isn't going away.

But what is really changing is the geopolitics of the world — what's happening with tariffs, countries being invaded, wars — all having massive impacts on global food supply chains. Bad actors are really looking for those opportunities. And this isn't just one or two people. We're talking about organised crime. Wherever I look in the world now — Europe, South America, Asia — it's more and more about organised crime. And they are very, very well organised. Their logistics, their methods of cheating, are quite remarkable. So you might think you have a nice plan in place to protect your business, but you really have to update it and think about what these new challenges are. AI, for instance — great example.

Are you pro or against AI?

Chris Elliott: I'm very pro AI, but I can also see AI being a great tool for fraudsters.

Where are bad actors in food using AI, and how?

Chris Elliott: Some of the best examples are in fraudulent documentation. I have seen the most amazing certificates — laboratory certificates — and when presented side by side, a genuine one versus one produced by AI, I will tell you I can't tell the difference. The only way you can tell is if there's a QR code, and then you look at where that QR code actually links to. That's the area where fraudsters haven't yet been able to make inroads. Because if you scan those QR codes, they take you somewhere, and that has to match what's on the documentation. Fraudsters still haven't cracked that yet.

Which areas are using QR codes effectively so far — things like cheese and honey?

Chris Elliott: Not all businesses use QR codes, as you know. The first movers were the big businesses who really understand their supply chains, know the risks, and have invested in QR technology. A lot of businesses I talk to are still debating it — is it like the old story about video recorders, where you invest and then a better technology comes along? That's a really good conversation we're having. But with GS1 Sunrise coming in, there is real commitment to the move from one-dimensional to two-dimensional QR, which suggests there should be longevity in that sector.

Are you seeing people beginning to invest in it now?

Chris Elliott: Yes — investment and a lot more interest. People are starting to ask the good, difficult questions about using QR codes in their certification systems.

In your New Food article, you were talking about the importance of a risk list. Can you tell us a little more about that?

Chris Elliott: If you're a food business — even a moderate-sized one — think about the number of commodity ingredients you're using. It could be 500, it could be a thousand. And then think about the big retailers selling 25,000 or 35,000 different food products. The complexity of the supply chains, the complexity of the ingredients and commodities they buy — where do you even start when your list begins at 100,000 different ingredients?

So what we're doing now, using digital tools and AI, is building what I'd call intelligence — talking to people in supply chains, talking to government agencies. From that you can start to say: what's my A list, the things I should be really worried about? I always ask: are they going to make somebody sick? Are they going to kill somebody? That's your A list. Second priority: what would the impact be to our business if a fraud was exposed here? And then there are some things where, much as you don't want any fraud, you just can't put them on your priority list because you have too many other things to worry about. It's about prioritisation.

What would you be prioritising?

Chris Elliott: It depends entirely on what part of the food sector you're in. In agriculture, there's massive fraud in fertilisers and chemicals. If you're a food manufacturer, what are you making? Where do you source from — locally, nationally, internationally? You need to look at individual ingredients: where is the fraud likely to happen, what would it look like, and would it impact human health?

I would always look first at whether people are tampering with food or adding things that shouldn't be there. Then you can look at things like geographic origin — some people don't care where their food comes from, which is fine, but others do, and in some cases there's legislation about not sourcing from regions linked to things like modern-day slavery, for instance.

When you talk about legislation and regulation — do you think there needs to be something specific around fraud, or is the existing framework enough to support the industry?

One of the bigger ticket items for 2026 is EUDR. It's been talked about for a long time. I'm actually a big supporter of EUDR — the concept of it. What was missing was practical application. Businesses really didn't know how to implement it, but neither did the regulators, which is why they gave more time for people to think things through. In terms of awareness, I now speak to more businesses in Southeast Asia about EUDR than European ones — because they are major exporters of food products, they're part of complex supply chains, and some operate in areas of deforestation. Everybody talks about Brazil, but it's not just Brazil.

There's a lot of awareness about EUDR, and it's been very difficult to implement measures to meet the regulatory guidelines, especially as they keep changing. A lot of people have been sitting back and waiting to see what others do. And I always say that's probably the most dangerous strategy you can ever have. Sit back too long and you'll be the victim of something that's gone badly wrong.

What examples can you think of where people sat back and were hit badly by fraud?

Chris Elliott: Unfortunately, there are too many. Looking at the commodities that are really challenging right now — chocolate, cocoa, coffee. And coffee is going to face pressure because we haven't seen a lot of fraud there yet. We've had orange juice, we've had olive oil — all those big stories. But considering how impacted the cocoa market has been, I'm surprised we haven't read more about fraud.

You hear about it though, behind the scenes?

Chris Elliott: I hear the stories. For cacao, it's a major, major problem. When prices surge — and we've seen quite a lot of crop failures in different parts of the world — there's a huge amount of smuggling going on, with cacao moving from deforested regions into non-deforested regions. And that comes back to documentation fraud. Just because you're not seeing it in the headlines doesn't mean it's not happening. I think it's much, much more likely to increase than decrease.

Do you think there's going to be a big breaking story in 2026, where some of the major players get caught out because they haven't anticipated this?

Chris Elliott: Back to the crystal ball. You've got the five big commodities under EUDR, plus wood. One of those five or six is going to be the breaking story somewhere. It's like pass the parcel — when does it stop on your knee?

And thinking about the other major story of 2025 — beef prices. Following the horsemeat scandal all those years ago, has that sector become more resilient and more aware, or are you still hearing things under the radar?

Chris Elliott: The beef and meat sector was really badly impacted by the horsemeat scandal, and things changed dramatically and for the better. So many companies got their act together — much more focus on supply chains, inspections, audits, better quality testing. But what I'm hearing in meat now is that probably the biggest fraud going on in the world is around halal. And that's not just a UK story — this is global. When you have price pressures, people will cheat. Halal is really important to so many people on the planet, but if you look at the level of checks, inspections, and audits, I'd say it's still in its infancy. So there's a lot of scope for people to cheat.

We've already touched on AI adoption — but what do you see as the pros and cons of implementing AI into the supply chain when it comes to food safety?

Chris Elliott: There's AI in food safety and AI in food fraud, and there's a myriad of different projects going on around the world, which is great. I'm involved in quite a number of them. The scope for correct use of AI is amazing. It comes back to finite resources — where should we put them? This is the area of predictive analytics: predicting what the next food safety incident might be, predicting the next food fraud incident, and moving your resources accordingly. Some pilot projects I'm already working on are showing dividends.

As an analytical chemist, AI is really increasing the power of testing methodologies as well. We do something called pattern recognition — essentially taking fingerprints of food — and you can use AI to say: this fingerprint is meat, but it's not the same as what we tested last week. Something has changed. So lots is happening in both the predictive and analytical space.

I suppose AI also allows companies to anticipate supply chain pressures from climate change — and adapt their formulations and sourcing accordingly?

Chris Elliott: Exactly. Some of the big food businesses I work with aren't thinking about whether to change sourcing next month — they're modelling three or five years out. There's a huge amount of AI-driven modelling going on. Companies are saying our major sourcing could be in this region of the world, but because of geopolitics and climate change, we might change sourcing not just from a different country but from a different continent. That takes a lot of data crunching.

I do a lot of projects in Africa, and a lot of the modelling points to growing particular crops in particular regions where weather modelling shows beneficial conditions and water availability. But then in Africa you have all the compliance and infrastructure challenges. These are very serious discussions about completely changing supply chains — which is going to have significant economic impacts on some of those countries.

How can countries respond in a way that doesn't destabilise certain areas?

Chris Elliott: First, you need understanding at a governmental level that these are big challenges coming. If a lot of a country's income comes from food exports, they need to protect that. A lot of that will involve climate-smart farming. There are amazing initiatives around aquaculture, hydroponics, vertical farming, and drought-resistant crops. The difficulty, as you'll know well, is that a lot of food is grown by subsistence farmers who simply can't invest beyond next month.

That's why UN agencies, the World Bank, and the Asia Development Bank are stepping in — mapping resilience, thinking about how to make aquaculture in Southeast Asia more resilient, how to make rice production more resilient. Those discussions are happening, but they need a truly joined-up approach and an unbelievable scale of investment.

You've probably encountered almost every kind of food fraud by now. Was there an instance from 2025 or more recently that surprised even you?

Chris Elliott: The wonderful thing about having worked in food fraud for too many decades is that I guarantee I will still hear something and think: I don't believe it. Can I tell you one I heard about yesterday? I got an email — I won't say the country, because it stigmatises places — but it was around honey. Basically there's a massive surplus of beetroot in one country, and they're extracting all the carbohydrates from the beetroot and force-feeding the bees on it. I thought: this can't be true.

But I'm going to sit down and investigate, because if true, it breaks regulations — you're not allowed to feed bees on plant-based sugars and then sell the output as honey. It happens in any commodity. I always describe it as salt to saffron. Salt is the world's cheapest ingredient and I hear fraud about salt. Saffron is the world's most expensive and I hear fraud about saffron. There is no commodity, no type of ingredient, that people won't find some way to cheat on.

How do you cheat on salt, for instance?

Chris Elliott: Think about it — if you went to a supermarket, what would be the most expensive salt? Beautiful sea salt from the Hebrides, perhaps. That is actually a real story. Hebridean sea salt being sold as exactly that — and it came out of a salt mine in Poland. Because there are so many new products coming onto the market and you need to find a differentiator to stand out, it creates that vulnerability.

Looking ahead — are there areas that currently aren't getting enough attention?

Chris Elliott: There are always the known suspects — honey, olive oil, meat — people will always cheat on those. EUDR. Cacao and coffee will absolutely be on my radar. But even beyond that, we're now in the world of alternative proteins, and I'm already picking up lots of signals about fraud there.

Because there aren't established testing methods yet?

Chris Elliott: Partly. And also because of what the product actually looks like. If you've ever visited a food manufacturing facility that uses a lot of alternative proteins, you walk in expecting to see lots of mushrooms or legumes. It's not. It's bag after bag after bag of white powders — heavily processed white powders.

My question is: how do you know what's actually in that bag? Because what it says on the label might say soya or something else, but you only have a certificate. And with all these different white powders available, you can imagine the ease of blending them — especially as their prices keep shifting on the market. I suspect there's already a lot of blending going on. And you have the potential of introducing serious food allergens into products that are supposed to be allergen-free.

That's my big fear about the alternative protein market — it's going into this naive about fraud, not thinking about what might happen if that soya has been contaminated with milk powder.

We see those recall stories every week — even major retailers recalling products because of undeclared allergens in plant-based or alternative protein products. How on earth does it keep happening?

Chris Elliott: There's the accidental route — poor manufacturing processes, cross-contamination in the workspace. Those cock-ups do happen. But I think a lot of people default to saying it must have been a mistake. In some cases, I don't think it was a mistake. I think it was deliberate.

Another area we haven't touched on — as packaging regulations change, is fraud there something you'd expect to increase?

Chris Elliott: Packaging legislation changes bring more cost and more regulation. You have to change your sourcing. So some people think: let's take a shortcut and buy from someone 10% cheaper — without asking why they're 10% cheaper. Those companies may themselves be cutting corners. Food packaging is an area where there is a huge amount of fraud going on, and ironically it's because of good things — legislation trying to drive safer products, trying to help us recycle. People will look for opportunities to cheat on that.

And who's actually checking? The regulations exist, but are the proper checks in place, or are people just ticking boxes?

Chris Elliott: Exactly. If it's compliance-based — here's a checklist, everything's ticked, uploaded onto a digital platform — it doesn't mean people are doing things properly. I think governments have a role in checking people's homework, but in Europe, it is a legal responsibility of food business operators to make sure food is safe and authentic. You can't just wait for someone else to do it. And don't assume that just because you're using the same supplier as a big retailer, you're getting the same thing. You might be getting product off a different line from a different part of the world.

Going back to the pilot schemes you mentioned — is there anything you can talk about, or is it all under the radar?

Chris Elliott: A mixture of both. A lot of the work we're doing in Southeast Asia is around mitigating the impact of climate change — specifically looking at natural ways to control animal disease and reduce antibiotic overuse. The work we're doing in the shrimp industry in Thailand is fantastic.

On the fraud front, it's really difficult to say too much, because I'm told the people who listen to my lectures and online content are often the very people who conduct fraud — they want to know what we can and can't detect. I actually had a man come up to me at a conference, fold his arms very seriously, and ask: "Can you detect this particular fraud?" And when I said no, I saw exactly what that told me about his business.

And finally — if you were to give five recommendations to a business, say a large retailer, to insure against food fraud, what would they be?

Chris Elliott: Large businesses already know these five things, I'll tell you that. Number one: don't think you're alone. In the UK, we have the Food Industry Intelligence Network with 70 or 80 different member companies — and you don't have to be UK-based; companies from all over the world are joining. That's the anti-food-fraud club of clubs. They've now got a section specifically for SMEs, saying: watch out for this, this and this.

Number two: think seriously about your supply chains and how well you really know them. A lot of people tell me they know their supply chains, but after three questions they start to sweat, because they don't. Number three: understand where you're sourcing from and what the specific risks are for those ingredients. Number four: if someone is selling you something that seems too cheap to be true, ask yourself very carefully why. And number five: read the New Food articles, because they are always full of the latest food fraud stories.